The Great Cities of
the Future
by
McKinley Conway
A
hundred urban areas are poised to become truly great: Which ones will
emerge as the next "supercities"? Many
urban areas offer a high quality of life. They earn high marks when
measured by the usual economic and social indicators. Yet, some cities
rise above the others, achieving distinction on a higher plane. They are
world-class cities that enjoy a special image in the eyes of billions of
people. Their assets and achievements are known and recognized by leaders
in government, science, the arts, and business. They attract people from
around the world and make visitors feel comfortable by showing respect for
their varied languages, customs, and cultures. These
unique "supercities" attract and hold wealth. They are recognized by the
global business community as good locations for their headquarters
offices, research and development laboratories, and other strategic
investments. There are going to be many new supercities in the
twenty-first century.
A supercity is an
urban area with three characteristics:
By
this definition, not all large cities are supercities, but all large
cities can strive to achieve that status. Today's large cities are
continuing to grow rapidly throughout the world. The United Nations
estimates that over 500 urban areas will have a population of more than a
million people by 2015, compared with 328 such cities in 1996. Over the
same period, the number of cities with a population of more than 5 million
is projected to increase from 16 to 26. There may be as many as 100
emerging supercities around the world. The United States has such
fast-developing centers as Atlanta, Dallas, Denver, Phoenix, Seattle,
Portland, Salt Lake City, Honolulu, Orlando, New Orleans, and many others.
Elsewhere, the competition
includes such cities as Madrid, Melbourne, São Paulo, Toronto,
Guadalajara, Lyons, Stuttgart, Shanghai, and scores of others. These
cities want many of the same things other cities want, and they are
willing to work very hard to achieve them.
Large cities as a group need
enormous increases in urban infrastructure and services to meet the
demands generated by the rapid growth and rising expectations of
residents. The sheer scale of these new infrastructure requirements
creates imposing challenges to planning, financing, and development.
All of the competitors have
one thing in common: Cities of the future must be built
project-by-project. There is no quick and easy route to success.
It was this building-block
approach that raised many world-renowned cities to their present status.
At various intervals they installed transit systems, expanded
water-treatment plants, built convention centers, and added other
infrastructure components. It is difficult to rank
these elements in importance or to say which ones, if any, are not needed.
However, in combination, these components produce success. Here are some
examples of vital elements for supercities:
Around the world today we
find competing cities undertaking impressive programs to enhance their
infrastructure systems and take a leadership role for the early
twenty-first century. Los Angeles is developing a
25-year water plan. New Orleans is building a new $500 million port. Kuala
Lumpur is assembling a new, multibillion-dollar government center.
Portland, Oregon, is adding green infrastructure. In Beijing there is a
great new rail station, and Buenos Aires is planning a bridge to Uruguay.
Madrid is investing billions in new infrastructure projects.
Assembling a new supercity
is a formidable task anywhere. It is even more difficult in metropolitan
areas that include diverse jurisdictions. Some cross national boundaries.
Creative and heroic thinking is needed. Singapore is locating new elements
in nearby Malaysia and across the straits in Indonesia. Hong Kong's new
metropolitan area covers the entire Pearl River delta and involves many
new relationships. Other cities are working to
integrate their hinterlands in a more-productive fashion. Atlanta is
boldly seeking to build an outer-loop beltway covering more than 200 miles
(360 km) and costing more than $3 billion. Moscow, which already has two
concentric loop arteries, is now proposing a third loop. Istanbul is
looking at yet another Bosporus crossing to improve traffic between Europe
and Asia. Nowhere is the competition
keener than in the race to build great new airport cities to gain global
transport advantages. Multibillion-dollar projects are appearing all over
the world. Several world-class airport facilities have been constructed in
recent years in Munich (1992), Osaka/Kansai (1994), Denver (1995), and
Hong Kong (1998). Meanwhile, other cities are
moving ahead with intermodal air, rail, and highway links to improve their
competitive advantage. Inside the Paris Charles de Gaulle airport terminal
complex there is a new billion-dollar link to the French high-speed rail
system. At Lyons, the Satolas airport also has added a link to the TGV
high-speed rail line. A new rail link is planned at New York La Guardia.
Other cities are pushing
innovative programs to fund the many expensive infrastructure elements
they need. Mexico is privatizing some 25 key airports. Manila is moving
ahead with BOT (Build, Operate, Transfer) projects for major highways.
Under a BOT plan, a private investor builds a facility and operates it as
a private venture for a specified time and then hands it over to the
contracting government entity. This has become a popular form of
privatization in a number of countries: Bangladesh is planning to build a
new container port via a BOT plan, and Taiwan is floating a new issue for
high-speed rail. A common denominator among
supercities is their desire to attract great global events that bring both
revenue and recognition. These require great arenas, convention centers,
and hotel complexes. Barcelona and Atlanta invested several billion
dollars in infrastructure improvements to accommodate recent Olympic
games. Today, Sydney is pushing
construction for the year 2000 Olympics, and Athens is planning a new
rapid-transit system and a new international airport for the year 2004
games. The United Kingdom is
investing more than $1 billion in facilities for celebrating the turn of
the century and the new millennium. Included is the world's largest dome,
which will be located near Greenwich.
These are just a few of the
building blocks being put in place by cities seeking to enjoy world-class
status in the years ahead. All are expensive. Some involve political risk
and face strong opposition. They are projects that pose enormous
challenges for any city. And the test of a city's leadership includes not
only the key political officials, but the planning staff, private
developers, financial institutions, and major corporate citizens.
Moreover, every future
project must be launched by leaders who are already very busy with current
problems. Those who are too busy to pause and think ahead will be the
losers. The winners, like successful generals in the heat of battle, will
be those who can conceive of and implement effective development
strategies. |